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Bill Yenne, in his book
The World's Worst Aircraft wrote, "Like any great
technological leap with a timetable set by politicians,
(it) takes longer than expected to evolve" It
fails anytime it is "really more a political venture
than an economically justifiable commercial one."
Let me simplify.
If there’s no “R”, it’s not and “I”, it’s an “E”.
If there’s no Return, it’s not and Investment, it’s an
Expense.
We keep “Expensing” into alternative fuels before anyone
even understands the physics.
Bio Fuels
The physics of fuels. Diesel has 138,000 BTUs of energy
per gallon; gas 125,000 BTUs, natural gas 90,000 BTUs,
bio-fuel 80,000 BTUs and a car battery has 3,500 BTUs.
Natural gas needs to sell for 35% less than diesel to
yield the same energy per dollar. For Bio-fuel it’s 42%
less. And it requires 40 car batteries to yield the same
energy as a gallon of diesel.
Replacing imported oil with wind power is a noble idea.
But it will require 2.04 Trillion Dollars to buy the
wind turbines. We import 3.6 Billion barrels of oil a
year. The BOE (Barrel of oil equivalent) is 58 Million
BTU per barrel. That means that we import 208
Quadrillion BTU’s of energy. A 600 KW wind generator
produces 1.5 Million KW per year (running at the World
Wide average of 28% efficiency). 1 kWh is 3,412 BTUs. A
600 kWh wind generator produces 51.2 Billion BTUs of
energy a year. It would require 4.1 million generators
to replace imported oil. The average cost for a 600 kW
generator is $500,000. The cost for just the wind
generators would be 2.04 Trillion Dollars. Double that
to include updating the grid. Then figure out how to pay
to replace all the cars…
Replacing imported oil with solar.
First, solar doesn’t like the heat of Arizona. It loses
30% of its efficiency during summer.
I just checked “sunnyportal” and a 4 kWh system I’m
monitoring produced 700 kWh in May. To reach the BOE
yield from oil imports, we will need 854 Million solar
systems at a cost of $42,000 each for a total price of
36 Trillion Dollars. Considering the Government and
Power Companies rebate half, the Federal Government only
needs 18 Trillion Dollars to replace imported oil with
solar. The grid, however, wouldn’t need as much work
because solar can provide localized power. But we still
need to replace all those cars…
Alternative sources of
power will create a ROI someday. Until then, the
best use of money is investing in research. Mass
production of a technology that is not cost effective is
an expense that we cannot afford today.
If we keep expensing into
alternatives, and don't rid our dependence on foreign
oil, we compound the problem by paying interest on the
dept and paying for foreign oil.
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